When the draw came in for the second round of the Champions League, the French sides rejoiced. Olympique Marseille drew a heavyweight side in 2010 champions Inter Milan, but a heavyweight who had been struggling for much of the year (the two teams have had mirrored seasons - terrible start, big midseason push, and then a backstretch malaise). Olympique Lyon, meanwhile, got the prize draw for the second place teams from the group stage: Apoel Nicosia, a Cyprus team that had a surprising run to the top of their somewhat mediocre group, and hence a team ripe to be beaten by a classy side like Lyon. Both French teams likely viewed the draw as a chance to revitalize their season, earn big box-office receipts in reaching the quarterfinals, and keep alive their faint chances of an improbably quadruple season (Champions League title, Ligue 1 title, Coupe de France, Coupe de la Ligue - the first two would have been the longshots, and they play each other in the final of the last one).
Judging by this week's mid-week results, that hasn't worked out so well for them.
Marseille has fallen back into a funk after a 17-game undefeated streak (including Ligue 1 and their various cups). Starting with a 2-2 draw at home against Lyon in February (a match OM led 2-0), Marseille hasn't won a match in Ligue 1. They had a Coupe de France win over a lower division club and a 1-0 win in the home half of their fixture with Inter that they snagged at the last second, but nothing else to boast of. Included in their losses was a 0-1 defeat at home to Toulouse, a direct rival for a European finish this year (top 3 for Champions League, 4th for Europa League), and a 1-0 loss away at Brest, a mid-level squad lacking glamor.
The one thing OM had in their back pocket was a game in hand away to Evian TG, another mid-table squad. Cancelled in the freezing first half of February, the game was replayed on Tuesday. Missing Loic Remy and Mathias Valbuena, two key attacking players, OM fell again without scoring a goal, losing 2-0. And there goes that card. Now all they have left is the injury excuse and the hope that they can be slightly less out of form than Inter next week so as to qualify for the quarterfinals, a stage they haven't reached since they won the Champions League in 1993.
Lyon has less to fall back on. For one, they don't have major injury problems except for Yohann Gourcuff, their top signing and top-paid player who has scored only one goal this year. They also have a tougher road in the Coupe de France, facing PSG in two weeks (whereas Marseille gets another lower-division squad), and a big stretch coming up of tough Ligue 1 matches. Since that same draw with OM, Lyon has drawn once in Ligue 1 (the ballyhooed 4-4 match against PSG) and lost thrice, two of those matches against relegation-threatened teams.
Lyon had the 1-0 lead over upstart Apoel to fall back on. That lasted 9 minutes in last night's match, by which point Apoel had scored. In some sense, at 1-1 in the second match of a cup tie, the away team has the advantage. If they score once to tie up the second match at 1-1 and the aggregate at 2-1, the home team has to score twice to advance. If the home team scores again to go up 2-1 on the overall, their lead is much more tenuous for the same reason (as the away team will advance on away goals in a 2-2 aggregate). All of which is a garbled way of saying even though Lyon couldn't sit back anymore with a 1-1 overall score, they weren't in bad position.
Despite that, they fell into the penalty kick shootout, and in the crapshoot Apoel came out ahead 4-3 with a ball in hand. Lyon fell out of the Champions League for 2011/12, and have to face an increasingly likely scenario that they don't climb back in it for 2012/13.
Which would be something of a big deal for French football. Lyon has been the dominant club of the past decade plus, and have played Champions League football 10 years in a row. This marked their 9th year in a row in the knockout phase, with their semifinal appearance two years ago their best result of the run. Lyon has been a dependable foil to some of Europe's top clubs, getting knocked out by Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, AS Roma, and FC Porto over that run (to be fair, they did knock out Real Madrid two years ago, part of what led to Manuel Pelligrini getting fired and Jose Mourinho coming over from Inter).
Now, Lyon's (and Marseille's) form is poor and both PSG and Montpelier have raised the bar far away from the pack. While either of those teams could fall back, and Montpelier especially can't be expected to occupy the top of the table year in and year out, PSG appears sure to enjoy the same sort of sudden consistency and relevance as Manchester City in the Premier League, sealing off at least one Champions League spot each year. The repercussions of missing the Champions League are severe as well for teams like OL and OM; the lost revenue hampers their chances of staying in budget this year and then again restricts spending for the next year. Even for the top teams, success in football appears to be cyclical in large part because success more directly fuels future financial well-being and success than it does in the states. Between increased competition and current struggles, these two clubs could get stuck in a down cycle pretty easily.
Of course, either could straighten the ship out in a hurry and make a strong run up the table, at least locking down a Europa League berth apiece and holding off the creditors and the threats for a year. If I had to bet on one of these teams making top 3 and catching Lille, I'd go with Marseille, just because of the injuries (Remy and Valbuena are big deals for the club) and their more favorable schedule. And because Lyon looked so uninspired in person.
The two Olympically significant clubs' drama offers one of the more interesting story lines for the rest of the year in Ligue 1. It'll be interesting to see if, 5 weeks from now when they meet in the Coupe de la Ligue, either will be able to bask in their renewed good form, or if they'll be swapping horror stories about a season gone wrong.
Judging by this week's mid-week results, that hasn't worked out so well for them.
Marseille has fallen back into a funk after a 17-game undefeated streak (including Ligue 1 and their various cups). Starting with a 2-2 draw at home against Lyon in February (a match OM led 2-0), Marseille hasn't won a match in Ligue 1. They had a Coupe de France win over a lower division club and a 1-0 win in the home half of their fixture with Inter that they snagged at the last second, but nothing else to boast of. Included in their losses was a 0-1 defeat at home to Toulouse, a direct rival for a European finish this year (top 3 for Champions League, 4th for Europa League), and a 1-0 loss away at Brest, a mid-level squad lacking glamor.
The one thing OM had in their back pocket was a game in hand away to Evian TG, another mid-table squad. Cancelled in the freezing first half of February, the game was replayed on Tuesday. Missing Loic Remy and Mathias Valbuena, two key attacking players, OM fell again without scoring a goal, losing 2-0. And there goes that card. Now all they have left is the injury excuse and the hope that they can be slightly less out of form than Inter next week so as to qualify for the quarterfinals, a stage they haven't reached since they won the Champions League in 1993.
Lyon has less to fall back on. For one, they don't have major injury problems except for Yohann Gourcuff, their top signing and top-paid player who has scored only one goal this year. They also have a tougher road in the Coupe de France, facing PSG in two weeks (whereas Marseille gets another lower-division squad), and a big stretch coming up of tough Ligue 1 matches. Since that same draw with OM, Lyon has drawn once in Ligue 1 (the ballyhooed 4-4 match against PSG) and lost thrice, two of those matches against relegation-threatened teams.
Lyon had the 1-0 lead over upstart Apoel to fall back on. That lasted 9 minutes in last night's match, by which point Apoel had scored. In some sense, at 1-1 in the second match of a cup tie, the away team has the advantage. If they score once to tie up the second match at 1-1 and the aggregate at 2-1, the home team has to score twice to advance. If the home team scores again to go up 2-1 on the overall, their lead is much more tenuous for the same reason (as the away team will advance on away goals in a 2-2 aggregate). All of which is a garbled way of saying even though Lyon couldn't sit back anymore with a 1-1 overall score, they weren't in bad position.
Despite that, they fell into the penalty kick shootout, and in the crapshoot Apoel came out ahead 4-3 with a ball in hand. Lyon fell out of the Champions League for 2011/12, and have to face an increasingly likely scenario that they don't climb back in it for 2012/13.
Which would be something of a big deal for French football. Lyon has been the dominant club of the past decade plus, and have played Champions League football 10 years in a row. This marked their 9th year in a row in the knockout phase, with their semifinal appearance two years ago their best result of the run. Lyon has been a dependable foil to some of Europe's top clubs, getting knocked out by Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, AS Roma, and FC Porto over that run (to be fair, they did knock out Real Madrid two years ago, part of what led to Manuel Pelligrini getting fired and Jose Mourinho coming over from Inter).
Now, Lyon's (and Marseille's) form is poor and both PSG and Montpelier have raised the bar far away from the pack. While either of those teams could fall back, and Montpelier especially can't be expected to occupy the top of the table year in and year out, PSG appears sure to enjoy the same sort of sudden consistency and relevance as Manchester City in the Premier League, sealing off at least one Champions League spot each year. The repercussions of missing the Champions League are severe as well for teams like OL and OM; the lost revenue hampers their chances of staying in budget this year and then again restricts spending for the next year. Even for the top teams, success in football appears to be cyclical in large part because success more directly fuels future financial well-being and success than it does in the states. Between increased competition and current struggles, these two clubs could get stuck in a down cycle pretty easily.
Of course, either could straighten the ship out in a hurry and make a strong run up the table, at least locking down a Europa League berth apiece and holding off the creditors and the threats for a year. If I had to bet on one of these teams making top 3 and catching Lille, I'd go with Marseille, just because of the injuries (Remy and Valbuena are big deals for the club) and their more favorable schedule. And because Lyon looked so uninspired in person.
The two Olympically significant clubs' drama offers one of the more interesting story lines for the rest of the year in Ligue 1. It'll be interesting to see if, 5 weeks from now when they meet in the Coupe de la Ligue, either will be able to bask in their renewed good form, or if they'll be swapping horror stories about a season gone wrong.
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